Poole Group

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Catching the Wave

By Kirk Jarrott

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The main contributors to the ASX 200 index over the quarter were the banks and large cap defensives. However, if we are to take the consensus target prices of analysts as gospel, there now lies little upside within this small sample of defensive stocks. We are now riding a wave into the most negative months of the year being September and October so as these stocks have rallied hard and broader macro economic issues are still evident, it is time to take some profit.

Ancient Greek Ruins, were they ever finished?

While the market considers the fear of a Greek default, it is interesting to note that if you combine the populations of the basket case nations of Portugal, Ireland and Greece they are roughly equivalent to the population of Chongqing in China. As Spain starts to make headlines, it is also worth noting that at the peak of the property bubble, Spain, a country of 45 million people, was building more houses than Germany, France and Italy combined, who between them have a population of about 200 million. With this extraordinary construction boom fuelled by their banks it is no wonder their banking system is likely to come under pressure (similar to US with subprime loans). At Warren Buffet' recent Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Mr Buffet said that "during the GFC, the US had recapitalised its banks very well but not so for the Europeans". However, while economic news from these nations fill business headlines, fundamentally macro analysts believe Asian markets will be driven by its own fundamentals rather than those nations mentioned above. As Asian markets decouple from the European problems tsunami waves travel far and wide so all markets become affected.

What will drive the Stock Market higher?

Looking back to the end of December 2011, our portfolios (on average) outperformed the ASX 200 by approximately 6.4%. This was due to our portfolios being positioned in the sectors that earned the greater profits over the last 12 months (banks and resources). Another big help for our portfolios was the participation of BHP's buyback where we earned a great return from the franking credits associated with the deal.

December 2011 Investment Report

Earnings – Looking for Growth in 2012 ?

At the time of writing this report the month of November saw the ASX 200 drop 200pts or - 4.7%. The rollercoaster between black and red continues however we have been using the red to buy quality at compelling yields of 7% plus 3.5% franking credits in all of the big 4 banks. Whilst the European crisis is being played out we have seen that buying around the low 4100 point level has rewarded long term investors. We have seen on at least four occasions in the last 5 months the ASX 200 continuing to find support base around the 4100 level. So whilst we may be looking for growth we have focused on what income we can earn from investments.